QPC Oil & Gas Crisis Evaluation. Results Report

Task presentation. Content and goal

Four locked scenarios. One QPC ranking from co-resident logics on IBM Heron r2.

Task content

Rank four Middle East oil and gas crisis configurations from a frozen indicator table. Each scenario carries the same logics at once:

Transport. Corridor and shipping movement under stress.
Market. Price and demand response.
Geopolitical. Regional tension, sanctions, political risk.
Substitution. Alternative routes, suppliers, energy sources.
Feasibility. Whether a response can be stood up in practice.
Risk and redundancy. Buffer and backup in the same state.

The four units are multi-theater spread, Iran transition shock, cross-border infrastructure destruction, and direct Gulf military intervention. QPC returns which configuration is most coherent when those logics co-reside.

Task goal

Deliver a ranking a planner can use:

• Which scenario is most manageable for allocation and contingency
• Which scenario carries the greatest structural stress
• Where to put redundancy and response capacity first

The product is a structured coherence ranking from the quantum job.

What was achieved

One quantum job on IBM Heron r2 · ibm_fez ranked four locked scenarios in parallel. Transport, market, geopolitics, substitution, and feasibility sat in the same circuit. Primary scores are raw.

128
Qubits used

4
Scenarios in one job

Heron r2
ibm_fez

1024
Shots

Lead scenario on raw counts

S4. Direct Gulf military involvement and coalition intervention
Gulf states move from an indirect posture to direct involvement. Coalition action reshapes corridor security and the escalation ladder.

Customer takeaway: Corridor protection can tighten locally while confrontation widens. Raw relative score 100.

Full scenario ranking

Raw relative score (0–100). Higher means transport, market, geopolitics, substitution, and feasibility align more coherently in that configuration.

Rank	Scenario	Raw QPC score	Takeaway
1	S4 · Gulf direct intervention	100	Corridor protection can tighten; confrontation widens
2	S1 · Multi-theater spread	66.33	Simultaneous logistics, political, and security shocks
3	S3 · Cross-border infrastructure destruction	49.47	Throughput collapse: fields, pipelines, terminals
4	S2 · Iran transition shock	0	Command fragmentation and abrupt export-policy shifts

How to read the ranking

The job compared four locked configurations. Here is what the order means for planning.

Higher raw score (100, 66.33). The logics in that scenario align. Transport, market, geopolitics, substitution, and feasibility pull in a usable direction. Use these first for allocation and contingency.

Lower raw score (49.47, 0). The same logics pull apart. Structural stress is higher. Put more redundancy and response capacity here.

What the order says. S4 leads because coalition intervention gives a clearer corridor-and-escalation structure. S1 follows as simultaneous multi-theater shock. S3 is throughput collapse on fields and terminals. S2 sits last: Iran command fragmentation and sudden export-policy shifts.

What to do with it. Put readiness on S4 and S1 first. Build deeper buffers for S3 and S2. The computation delivered that comparison.

How QPC works (simple explanation)

QPC holds each scenario as co-resident contexts (transport, market, geopolitics, substitution, feasibility) in one job.

1. Context encoding. Each factor is a quantum phase. More factors, more dimensions in the same register.

2. Relational coupling. Transjunctions link transport to market, geopolitics to substitution, inside the quantum state.

3. Coherence readout. Agreement across contexts strengthens the signal. Contradiction lowers the score.

4. Neighborhood refinement. Related scenarios share structure, so the ranking stays consistent across the set.

Resilience on the same job

The ranking above is raw. The QPC resilience stack is the diagnostic channel on the same counts.

What QPC does on hardware. Redundant views of the same factor, count normalization, and the noise-reducer path documented for buyers: QPC Noise Reducer public report.

What stays primary. Architecture and ranking claims stay on raw counts. The four-way order on raw is S4, S1, S3, S2. The reducer-plus-graph layer keeps that same order.

Backend	IBM Heron r2 · `ibm_fez` · 156-qubit machine
Qubits used	128
Shots	1024
Primary metric	Raw relative ranking (S4 100 · S1 66.33 · S3 49.47 · S2 0)
Resilience	QPC noise reducer, same order after graph refinement · public report
Companion	Technical final report

Oil & Gas Crisis Scenario Evaluation